December 2011 Issue

The Final Stretch

Months of speculation and it's finally here. The final holiday sales weeks are upon us. Analysts’ reports have been mixed, from speculation that pentup consumers will run wild in the streets, spending their hard-won cash, to dismal reports of lackluster sales.

According to ShopperTrak, more customers shopped the Sunday before Thanksgiving than the days following Black Friday. Both Black Saturday and Black Sunday showed year-over-year losses in retail sales and foot-traffic, which caused the entire Black Friday weekend (Friday, Saturday and Sunday) to realize a 1.9 percent sales increase and 1.8 percent decline in foot-traffic when compared to the same period last year. The week leading up to Black Friday (ending Nov. 26), however, saw a 4.4 percent increase in sales, when compared to the same week in 2010. Black Sunday (Nov. 27) also saw a 1.7 percent decrease in enclosed mall foot-traffic, compared to the previous Sunday (Nov. 20).

The report goes on to indicate that Black Friday sales increased 6.6 percent over the same day last year, representing $11.40 billion in retail purchases and the biggest dollar amount ever spent during the day. Retail foot-traffic rose by 5.1 percent over Black Friday 2010. Both sales and foot-traffic, however, declined as the weekend continued. Compared to the same day in 2010, Black Saturday sales dropped 4 percent, and people counts declined 9.6 percent. Sales were slightly better on Black Sunday, dropping only 2 percent year-over-year, while foot-traffic dropped 8.7 percent over Black Sunday 2010.

ShopperTrak predicts five of the biggest shopping days of the season are still ahead. Its prediction - that the week leading up to Christmas weekend will be hot for retailers - seems like a no-brainer to me. It's those last-minute holiday shoppers heading to the stores to capture sales and the Christmas spirit.

The timing of Hanukkah could also be a win for retailers this year, as both Christmas and Hanukkah shoppers will be hitting the stores at the same time.

Timing, in fact, plays into post-holiday sales success as well. ShopperTrak predicts retailers may get a late Christmas gift this year - up to 60 percent more shoppers will walk through their doors on Dec. 26 than on the same day last year.

“Retailers should begin planning now to convert the shopper surplus they'll see on Dec. 26 to sales,” said ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin. “Scheduling more floor staff to minimize line abandonment, filling stock rooms with inventory and increasing store hours could make a big difference. Don't depend on last year's experience. Only by monitoring same-store traffic can you ever really know what's going to happen in the store and make smart decisions to capture sales.”

According to ShopperTrak, shoppers will come out in full force on the day after Christmas because it falls on a Monday for the first time in six years. That day will rank third in foot-traffic for the holiday shopping season, surpassed only by Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, and Super Saturday, the Saturday one week before Christmas.

So wrap up those gift ideas for those last-minute shoppers who are preparing to stroll through your doors, and be sure to collect ideas for that post-holiday-deal-searching consumer.

Retailers should also be certain not to forget those online consumers - the ones who go far beyond the research, committing instead to online purchases - who are in search of deals every day. Maybe it's time to plan out those discounted deals for a great post-holiday, Web-only, one-day sale to help reduce inventory that may have missed the mark this season.

Then again, here's hoping you don't have anything extra to offer!

Happy Holidays!